So I'm reading this CNN article about Kerry's assertions that he can wage a more effective SCWoT than Bush. Yawn. Nothing exciting or even interesting in there, but scrolling down to the bottom provides us with an unrelated bit of policy wonking: some back-and-forth between Kerry and the Bush campaign about rising gas prices. Kerry thinks he can bring down gas prices by virtue of Not Being Bush, and to the extent that ME instability affects gas prices, he may well be right. The Bush campaign fires back that Kerry supported a 50-cent gas tax hike ten-plus years ago, which is true--although he never actually took any action to make it happen.

Both of them think the other is going to cause them to raise, or at the very least stay high. Both of them are positioning themselves as white knights of black crude, the saviors of the average consumer at the pump. The messages from both the Bush and Kerry campaigns are clear: they want gas prices to go down, and they think this is not only the correct political decision from a vote-gathering standpoint, but good policy.

They're both wrong.

With gas prices across the nation topping two dollars (and even oil-friendly Texas averaging around $1.80) per gallon, it's hard for anyone to not feel the crunch. Even if you, like me, don't drive, you're still paying--groceries and goods must be shipped, and shipping uses gas. An increase in gas prices drives up the markup of the goods that must be moved from point A to point B. Those who take public transit will soon find their fares going up, if these prices stay constant through the fiscal year. Smaller businesses, who generally have less margin for error, may find it harder to compete. In short, there are few people in this country who won't feel the pain of skyrocketing crude costs. And I think this is a good thing, because it may be the boot to the head that we need in order to seriously rethink our dependence upon oil.

Some of you may have heard the term "peak oil". Most of you understand that we are depleting the world's oil reserves far more quickly than our planet generates it. For those of you who are confused or doubtful, consider the following exercise:

Let's say you have a big bowl of black jelly beans. If you don't like licorice, substitute a flavor you do. You're having a party and you've invited a bunch of friends over. Every hour, you dump a handful of jelly beans into the bowl. Meanwhile, more people are showing up and sharing the jelly beans.

Eventually, the jelly beans are going to start getting eaten faster than they're replenished: this is peak oil. Experts, doomsayers, and pollyannas all disagree on the numbers, the when, but nobody with a brain can argue with the end result: the oil will run out. Eventually, it will no longer be cost-effective to drill for what little oil is left, and our way of life as we know it will no longer be sustainable on a petroleum economy.

Some say this point is decades away. Some say that it is only a matter of years, or that we are hitting that point now. Personally, I don't have the scientific education to say for sure one way or the other. What I do know is that we can't afford to be wrong, and that we must take this issue seriously.

The fact that we still buy SUVs and Hummers tells me that we have not yet reached that point. There are many traits for which Americans, collectively, can be admired, but our ability to make difficult decisions and sacrifices in order to confront a problem which is in our best interests to solve is not among them. I do not believe that we will honestly and seriously confront the problem of our petroleum addiction until it is hurting us. And high gas prices hit Americans in a way they can't ignore.

For this reason, I think it's a good thing that gas prices are going up. It's tough to say that, because my fiance does drive and the gas for our car (to the extent that we actually use it) comes out of my paycheck. But when I can take a step back from the day-to-day perspective of trying to make ends meet, I can only conclude that it's not only good that gas prices are high--but that they need to go higher.

How high? High enough that Americans collectively say "enough!" and demand that their elected government provide them with alternatives. High enough that we, as a country, embrace the lifestyle changes and personal sacrifices that are necessary in order to transition to a sustainable energy economy. High enough that not only does the thought of driving something that gets ten miles to the gallon become anathema to any thinking person--but that we start moving beyond the necessity of driving anything which burns gasoline.

The changes necessary will be drastic and uncomfortable. There's a large part of American culture which not only worships at the altar of consumption, but seems to believe in our divine right to consume and sustain our way of life--and they will fight tooth and nail against responsible alternative energy strategies which move away from oil. But make no mistake--these changes are necessary. Either we make them now, when we are privileged to only be inconvenienced by them... or we make them in desperation years down the road, when even the most ardent priests of petroleum can no longer deny that there is a deadly crisis upon us.

UPDATE: Kevin Drum has picked up on this issue, but he's starting with the wrong assumptions and asking the wrong questions. He's promised he's going to come back to this, so I'm interested to see what he comes up with.